Ukraine reports that it has killed about 26,000 invading Russian soldiers. Ukraine’s reports of Russian losses – unlike Russia’s own reports – have been fairly reliable, say observers, though NATO estimates a somewhat lower number. As for Ukraine’s own dead, they appear to be significantly fewer than Russia’s even after including the civilians that Russia has murdered.
Ukraine’s figures are not inconsistent with a report from the U.K. that over one-fourth of Russia’s 150,000-man army attacking Ukraine, amounting to perhaps 40,000, has been rendered “combat ineffective.” That means they’re dead or wounded badly enough that they can’t fight.
Russian deaths amount to about 400/day. They truck the corpses back to Russia at nighttime to conceal the carnage.
Put that into the context of modern warfare. The United States lost about 2,400 soldiers in 20 years in Afghanistan. We lost about 6,800 soldiers in the war for Iraq over the course of 14 years. The Soviets lost only about 14,000 soldiers in the ten years they fought in Afghanistan – a number they’ve far exceeded in ten weeks in Ukraine.
At this rate, by midsummer Russia’s death toll in Ukraine will exceed the 58,000 American dead in Vietnam – a death toll that took 15 years to reach.
Russian materiel is also taking a beating. They’ve lost about 1,000 tanks, compared to the U.S.’s loss of maybe two dozen in the Iraq wars which entailed the biggest tank battles since WWII. They’ve lost several hundred airplanes and helicopters and at least half a dozen ships including their flagship of the Black Sea, aptly named the Moskva or “Moscow.”
Ten to twelve Russian generals have been killed in combat, several by expert Ukrainian marksmen shooting from a mile away. Russian military morale is widely reported to be dismal. Go figure.
Even apart from the biting sanctions, this is not sustainable for Russia. They’re losing this war.
the Aspen beat 
Still, many of our politicians are loudly beating the drums for escalating our contributions to this war, as well as beating their chests over how it’s our technology and military intelligence that has inflicted the lion’s share of these losses on Russia’s forces. Fine, carry a big stick, but can’t we conceal it and speak more softly? Do we really trust our present government to do anything wisely and well?
Totally agree! WHY on earth would we BRAG OPENLY about helping Ukraine, unless we are attempting to get into a REAL war with Russia? (Cover up Demented Joe’s failings?)
This is all from the Biden Administration and their National Security Deep State crowing about this as if it’s their victory. This is all in a vain and self-interested attempt to completely turn the page on the disastrous exit from Afghanistan … the exit that Dopey Joe told Americans would look nothing like the fall of Saigon in 1975 … the exit that Dopey Joe proclaimed was an “extraordinary success.”
Biden and his Deep State minions are trying to claim credit for Zelensky’s iron will and Ukraine’s pugnacious defense and counteroffensives against the Ruskies.
Biden and his ilk risk nothing in Ukraine. They give away billions in weapons and systems but it is the US taxpayer who is on the hook for these costs. Why didn’t we just transfer all those countless billions and billions in weapons in Afghanistan to the Ukrainians instead of letting them all fall into the grimey hands of the Taliban?!?
Just a fraction of the billions in armaments, intel and weapons would secure our Southern Border. Yet official D.C. is only pre-occupied with other nations’ borders on the other side of the world while our very own border is constantly violated with fentanyl traffickers, convicted killers and rapists, and human traffickers and slavers.
Reference: https://nypost.com/2021/08/31/biden-to-address-end-of-afghan-war/
It doesn’t really matter how much you trust your government to act competently. Not until the opportunity to change said government arises. Because regardless of how much you like it, they are the only ones with authority to act on behalf of your nation.
Russia isn’t going to get an outright win in Ukraine, as in defeat the military, occupy all the territory, install a friendly government, and have a peaceful happy population of Ukrano-russians. At the start of the war, the general consensus was that Russia would accomplish all but the last bit in fairly short order. Then after a decade or two of occupation, Russia might get sick of seeing their supply trucks get blown up by IEDs and leave. See Vietnam, Afghanistan (80s), Iraq (2000s), and Afghanistan (2000s). The entire time, Ukrainians will be living a miserable existence.
But due to a combination of things, it now appears possible that Ukraine could militarily defeat Russia. To do so, they require bigger weapons than what an infantryman can carry. Tanks, jets, and artillery are needed to stop further Russian advances and then push the occupiers out. In providing such weapons to Ukraine, the west hopes to achieve a couple things. Make a global statement that they are strong & autocracies aren’t; gain a friendly nation in eastern Europe for a generation or two; By being extremely loud, it ensures that countries like Taiwan & China both get the same message. Which might just prevent a similar war from starting on the opposite side of the world a few years from now.
Yet you read where the Russian people are hardening in their belief that it is a war they need to win. The parents of some of the soldiers still think it is a noble mission to defeat Ukrainian Nazis. Doesn’t sound anywhere near the critical mass needed to turn the people against Putin. Hopefully, these reports are inaccurate.
I heard the same thing, BUT, the Russian people get no accurate information. It will have to be the Russian army that tells Putin to quit—and that may not happen for a long t ime!
Why should anyone believe these reports?
One reason to credit the reports is that Russia has indeed disengaged from most of Ukraine. It seems unlikely they would do so — thereby failing to achieve their military goals and also suffering considerable embarassment — unless things were going badly for them. That doesn’t prove that Russian losses are 26,000 as opposed to, say, 17,000, but it does suggest that losses are heavy.
I’m not convinced that any of the troop loss projections/guesses are accurate. Nonetheless, it can convincingly be argued that Russia/Putin is engaged in a military action the magnitude and difficulty of which was not not anticipated. Of course, not knowing what Putin’s generals told him before they began the incursion, there is no way of knowing for certain. So far, Putin’s reaction to America’s and NATO’s assistance to the Ukrainians has been remarkably muted. However, as the amount of assistance increases and the vocal support for Ukrainian victory coming from the Biden cabal becomes more strident, I find it hard to believe Putin will not soon send a message via tactical nuke (which can be credibly publicly denied given the low yields available, which can be passed off by Russia as a version of our own MOAB). After all, how long can we deny that we are in an undeclared state of war with Russia when we OPENLY DECLARE that we are funding Ukrainian action to the tune of billions in weapons; that we are providing intel that has led to the death of a dozen generals; that our armed forces are training Ukrainians in Poland and elsewhere; that we provided intel that allowed the Ukrainians to sink a Russia warship; and most egregiously, the CHICKEN HAWKS from both sides of the aisle, led by Pelosi visited Ukraine and declared “our” desire that Ukraine defeat its enemy, and thereby defeat America’s enemy, Russia. What would any American Administration do if Russia sent military aid and provided troop training and intel to say, Canada (yeah, just go with me here, suspend your disbelief) if we were in a hot shooting war with our Northern Neighbors? Would we ignore what would clearly be an open act of aggression, albeit by means of a proxy antagonist, regardless of “who started it”? It’s doubtful at best. Why do we think Russia/Putin will not do so at some point? Particularly if the tide of battle continues (assuming that to be the case) to go against him? He knows that a military defeat at the hands of Ukraine will mean the end of his political life, and quite likely the end of his mortal life. He is neither a young nor physically well man; he has nothing to lose and probably has enough support in his general staff to activate the launch codes if he thinks all is lost. Thus, although I would like to see Ukraine be vindicated and for the Russian aggression to be rebuffed, realistically I do not think that Putin will allow that to happen. I pray to God Almighty that Putin remains restrained; I fear he will not and I fear for the consequences.
Historically Russia’s military doctrine favored grinding combat that favors numerical superiority over technology or more subtle tactics. Lots of men with lots of guns, artillery and other ordinance. Ukraine is fighting more of a Guerrilla force, albeit an increasingly well-equipped one. Another interesting trend to track is Russian casualties and equipment losses when they were targeting Kiev vs when they switched their focus to the Eastern front. With much shorter supply lines to the East, Russia could conceivably fare better with this scenario. Should this not be the case and Russia’s losses keep pace – or even increase – we will learn quite a bot about the true capabilities of Russia’s military.
When I did business in Russia in the 1990s I was utterly convinced that the main reason they had 10,000+ nuclear missiles pointed at us wasn’t for ‘nuclear parity’; it was to make sure at least a few of them worked when ‘the button’ was pushed.
Russia may well be losing this war. What will the Russians do when conclude a loss is inevitable. Surrender? Or does Russia say “F.U., if we are going to lose, we have the capability to ensure that your losses exceed ours.” The Biden adminisration has shown neither awareness of nor respect for a Doomday Senario. I have lived through the entirety of WWII, the Korean Police Action, Vietnam and volunteered for the Marine Corps at age 17, had a 30+ year career on Wall Street and have lived in several Asian coun6tries. From where I sit, in a very small town ovelooking the Pacific Ocean, our country is largely unaware that our government’s policies/actions have us on the brink of a nuclear catastrophe. We seem only focus domestic politics rather than the larger world that shapes our reality. As is said, pray for the best but prepare for the worst. Unfortunately we have foresaken God, and we are not prepared for the worst.