I’m about to say things you don’t want to hear. But I’m a prognosticator, not a cheerleader (even though I voted for Trump three times). So here goes.

The Democrats will retake the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections. They’re ahead by eight points in the generic Democrat/Republican poll.

We can assign numbers to this. Let’s look at the prediction markets rather than the polls, since the polls are wrong so often. The markets say there’s a 92% chance the Democrats will win at least a one-person majority in the House. In fact, the markets say they will gain about 20 seats. They need only a few of those 20 to have a majority.

The House will then commence yet another impeachment of President Trump. Only a bare majority in the House is necessary for an impeachment. With a 20-seat majority – or even with a one-seat majority – the impeachment effort will succeed in the House.

In the course of that House impeachment, the Democrats will have the power to elicit testimony about the matters for which Trump is being impeached. It won’t be pretty. There will be testimony about Trump’s self-enrichment schemes such as bitcoin. There will be testimony about his family-enrichment schemes such as the Russian oligarch paying big money for Trump Jr.’s wedding reception.

There will be testimony about who ordered the slow-down of Starlink over Ukraine, an order that appears to have cost civilian lives. There will be testimony about decisions in the Iran war, and second-guessing of those decisions. There will be testimony about Trump’s decision to fund Russia with sales of diesel fuel.

There will be testimony about issues we don’t even know about yet. Even Trump’s most ardent supporters acknowledge that he impulsively says inflammatory things. Imagine what he’s said in the Oval Office. We won’t have to use our imagination when there’s testimony under oath about it.

The Democrats controlling the hearing will have a field day. Think Watergate, but with all the guardrails removed. Replace Senator Sam Ervin who headed the Watergate Committee with Representative Hakeem Jeffries in the House.

The end result in the House will be an impeachment vote that Trump will lose. All Democrats will vote for impeachment, and 20-30 Republicans will, too, like rats leaping from a drowning ship.

Then the matter gets taken up by the Senate. The Senate has the power to re-hear the damning testimony elicited in the House, and they will. The nation will be mesmerized for months.

Now is when is where it gets interesting. Unlike the House, the Senate vote to convict must be by more than a bare majority. It must be a two-thirds vote. In a 100-seat Senate, that means 67 votes.

If the Democrats have about 52 seats – which is the most likely outcome of the upcoming midterms – that means they will need about 15 Republican votes along with all 52 of their own votes in order to get to 67.

The Republican lawmakers don’t like President Trump. Call them RINOs if you will. Call them statesmen if you will. But don’t call them afraid of Trump. Not after the midterms when Trump gets hammered and he’s the lamest of lame ducks.

If anything, the Republicans will be eager to show their independence from a man who was always an outsider, and, in the opinion of many, a bully and a lout. And at that time, he will have been tarred with scandal upon scandal in the course of the impeachment proceedings.

There is thus a very real possibility that the 52 Democrats will get those 15 Republican votes, to get a total of 67. Even if they are held to 49 Senate seats in the midterms, there is a real possibility that they will get the 18 Republican votes necessary for a conviction.

If the Democrats get those votes against Trump in the Senate, that constitutes a removal from the Presidency. Trump will undoubtedly say that the removal is invalid for this reason or that, but he probably won’t get many on his side, even within his administration. Trump’s effort to defy the Senate conviction will probably get very little traction (but the Jan. 6 guy with the buffalo hat will be there again).

J.D. Vance will become president for the remaining term. You might think this is great news – we get MAGA but without Trump. It’s a little like the Democrats’ Woke II – all the same Woke I craziness but rebranded.

But no, it won’t be great news. The country will be torn apart, much more so than in Watergate. Moreover, Vance’s reputation will be in tatters along with Trump’s. There will be testimony that Vance was in the room when Trump said whatever, or made some decision, and Vance expressed no objection. Expect the tar to splash on everyone, even Marco Rubio who probably won’t deserve it.

And so, the Democrats will win in 2028. They’ll have the Presidency, the Senate, the House, and, with Court-packing, the Supreme Court, too. It will probably be for at least eight years. God help us.

I wish I were wrong about all this, but if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. I’ll trust the prediction markets, not my wishes.