Shhhh, the numbers are dropping  

Here’s some contraband, some non-fake news. If you repeat it, you might get face-masked. If you’re a nail salon owner trying to feed your family, you might get thrown in jail. I assume it will be banned from Facemaskbook.

Here it is. The virus numbers are dropping. In hard-hit Italy and Spain, the numbers peaked around the end of March – over five weeks ago. Both daily new cases and daily deaths are now down over 70%, as shown in these graphs.

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The rest of Europe is seeing similar downward trends, including Germany, France and the UK.

Given these trends, Europe is starting to re-open. That’s good news that you don’t hear much in American media.

Moreover, Europe’s re-opening is not spiking the numbers. You’re likely not to find that fact in an American news story at all, but only by reviewing the raw numbers for yourself such as through the links above.

Here in America, we delayed the pandemic and flattened the curve by restricting travel from China and Europe. (At the time, recall, the Administration was called racist and xenophobic for doing that, while the name-callers were urging block parties in San Francisco and New York.)

But now America, too, is past the peak of the virus. Daily new cases have plateaued over the last month, and would almost certainly be much lower if not for increased testing. And daily deaths are mostly down, and would be down more if not for the move to include “probable” virus deaths.

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Notably, a 50-mile radius around New York City accounts for the bulk of the US numbers. The authorities there have greatly loosened the criteria for reporting a death in that area as a “probable” virus death. That has the effect of keeping the death toll up.

In areas where the criteria have been more constant, the numbers have mostly gone down, often dramatically. Here’s the graph for my state, Colorado. (Note, however, that the numbers for the last week shown in the graph are probably not as low as depicted, because the state sometimes takes a few days to process reports.)

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You wouldn’t know all this if your source of news is ordinary, formerly-respected media outlets. Although it’s not hard to find, they simply don’t report it.

As even liberal political analyst Nate Silver has noted, what they report instead is usually not untrue, but is misleading. They report the bad days but not the good ones. And they report the death tolls in cumulative format. Consequently, every day sets a new death record which they trumpet almost gleefully.

This misleading reporting is particularly evident in their graphs. Rather than presenting the graphs above showing daily deaths over time, they present cumulative graphs showing all the deaths so far, like this one with accompanying text implying that it shows no “peaking” and subsequent decline.

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But to show a peaking and subsequent decline in a cumulative graph, dead people would have to come back to life. If that somehow did happen, I suspect the doomsday media wouldn’t report that either.

In lieu of news, sometimes the media present inflammatory but meaningless comparisons. Such as the point that more Americans have died of the virus (or at least with the virus)  than died in the Vietnam War.

That’s true. But it’s also true that the number of Americans who died in the Vietnam War or of the virus is sometimes surpassed in one American flu season, or in two years of highway deaths.

This is all for the purpose of promoting a false narrative that things are bad and getting worse. The opinion pages of the newspapers, and the news pages too, are full of opinions from non-scientists and non-physicians saying we must therefore keep the country closed. Maybe forever.

But these “closers” are not only ignorant about the science and medicine. They also seem ignorant, perhaps willfully, of the positive experience with re-openings in harder-hit Europe.

The closers seem particularly bugged by people attending church services, even drive-in ones where they stay in their cars. Worshipping God rather than, say, Gaia or Socialism or Big Government, is a barbaric practice in their view, and a dangerous one that threatens their authority. The virus has finally enabled them to outlaw it.

As for their make-weight argument that the lockdown saves lives, there’s little concrete evidence of that. It also fails to account for many lives lost because critical surgeries are being postponed in order to keep hospitals empty and waiting for an onslaught of virus patients – an onslaught that never came.

In any event, elderly and infirm people who account for 80-90% of the virus deaths are mostly self-isolated anyway (except in New York, where Governor Cuomo weirdly and disastrously ordered nursing homes to take in virus patients).

Michael Levitt, a Stanford biology professor who won the Nobel Prize and knows considerably more about medicine than a typical journo, stated, “There is no doubt in my mind that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by the lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor.”

By the way, here’s a dog-that-didn’t-bark piece of evidence. Why aren’t vagrants – er, I mean the housing impaired – dropping like flies? And what are the implications of that in managing the disease for the rest of us?

So here we are. The American media in 2020 shamelessly propagandize much like the 1943 American media in the middle of WWII. The difference is that the American media in 1943 were on the side of America.

Why are the media trying to prevent the country from going back to work? I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that the reason is not merely because they personally don’t like work. Rather, the reason is the upcoming election. They assume that a country in lockdown pain won’t reelect the incumbent president, whom they hate. But the election is still a half year away, and by then the virus will be nearly gone.

So what’s the next story from the incompetent partisan hacks formerly known as journalists? Asian murder hornets that are all Trump’s fault?

17 thoughts on “Shhhh, the numbers are dropping  

  1. For the death rate, there should be four different graphs. The first is the number of deaths in which the deceased showed no sign of the virus at all. The second is the number of deaths in which the deceased absolutely, positively died from the virus and had no other underlying conditions (age, illness, etc.). The third is for those that died had the virus, but also had other underlying conditions. The fourth is for the those that died, but we’re not sure if they had the virus or anything else, but it’s all Trump’s fault anyway, so the actual cause doesn’t matter.

  2. The most glaring issue left out of the media, is why are homeless not a poison pit of coronavid-19 disease? Maybe we should all go live outside. Romney has admitted that the largest volume of contagion (over 60%) is from sheltered at home people.

  3. GM Glen, I would like to think that the journos are doing a service by keeping people aware of the China virus & therefore being careful in public. I’m a bit regretful that you might not realize that. You are a well respected journo & I ask that you please don’t encourage the public that all is well & back to normal. I will be armed with my gloves & mask. At my age it’s better than the alternative Glen.

    On the other hand, did you see where Andrew Cuomo is puzzled(?) by the 66% of corona virus victims in NY that declared that they were “stay at home” persons.


    • I don’t think the media should encourage desireable behavior by presenting misleading information.

      The job of the media is to report the news. In doing otherwise, they undermine their credibilty. As a result, many people believe nothing the media says anymore. The false narrative that the virus is all a hoax, for example, is a direct result of people distrusting the media.

      I say, just report the facts. The people are smart enough to do the right thing, if only they can trust the media again.

    • The reason that such a high percentage of victims in NY were stay at homes is that the virus had already spread to most of them before the stay home orders were given. The virus was already spreading in NYC in February.

  4. I think the graph that matters is current ICU patients vs. time. The lockdown was sold to keep that number low. If that is the number, why not show it?

  5. CVirus is the best thing to happen to the media & Dems in decades. They will suck energy out of it until the entire global population tests negative. Good luck with that. And if you’ll forgive me, I’m a little tired of the “Hero” and “Superhero” designation for people who chose a particular occupation willingly. The jailed businessowner is the only person I know who might deserve the term.

    • There are no heroes in this mess.
      Only victims of #1) Communist China, and #2) The democrat party.

  6. Most journos are lying to us, health officials lie to us, the models are rigged, statistics on infections and deaths are inflated, politicians tell even more lies to push their own agendas. China’s lies may have caused the pandemic, but these home grown lies are causing far more deaths and economic harm.

  7. Because we need gloom and doom to advance the dialectic. In the rest of the world, the dialectic is already advanced, so they can reopen. Our brave Democratic governors are trying to hold the line. Wll they succeed or fail in stemming the revolt of the deplorables?

  8. “Both daily new cases and daily deaths are now down over 70%,…”

    Time for Plan B from the press and the usual suspect politicians. Endless stories of fear and doom will continue until you submit willingly to their nonsensical diktats or until November 4th. Masks must continue, crowds (read political rallies) must be discouraged, and voting in person will be discouraged (political operatives will be by to harvest your votes), and enjoy your government cheese (made in China).

  9. In Aspen the Catholic Church is the size of a Walmart, yet no more than ten people can “gather” for a Mass, and they have to wear masks, further discouraging them from receiving the consecrated host on the tongue, which is now also verboten, thanks to a stunning display of cowardice and anti-traditionalism on the part of so many bishops who also now appear to regard The Faith as “barbaric,” or at least so irrelevant as to not be allowed to get in the way of public health.

  10. “Rather, the reason is the upcoming election.” That right there explains the dire Covid news the media is reporting.

  11. Those number might be right OR the mis-reporting by certain areas that reported every death as COVID19. There were people who were dying of heart attacks, strokes, pneumonia, flue, and many other causes that were reported as COVID19 to get more of the federal money that was on tap. We will never know.

  12. Take a look at this pdf from the state of connecticut. This pertains to restaurants some of which have remained open but to go only…the measures they put forth are draconian…
    What restaurants have the capability to serve outside, and with the states guidelines…this is about control plain and simple…social distancing, face-masks, contact reporting, papers please!

  13. Pingback: By any means necessary; how low will the left go? | the Aspen beat

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