A few weeks ago, Iran had lost every battle but was winning the war. The regime had survived, even though its putative leader and probably his son and many others had not.
That’s because the Iranian regime was still raking in billions in the oil market, Moreover, they were disrupting the oil market for the rest of the world.
That disruption benefited the regime doubly. It garnered a higher price for their oil, and it incentivized the world to push for America to back off. Dependably venal and dependably short-term in its outlook and dependably anti-American, the world did as instructed.
Sure, a few thousand of Iran’s people had been killed by bombs, but the regime couldn’t care less about a few thousand of its people. After all, this is an outfit that killed ten times that many people in the streets last fall when they dared to protest the regime.
But as radicals often do – this is one reason they’re called “radicals” – the regime overplayed its hand.
They shut down the Strait of Hormuz to everyone except Iranian-approved vessels. As for the ones they approved, they conditioned their approval on payment of a multimillion-dollar toll. This is for an international waterway, mind you.
Their little pirate scheme was calculated to raise even more money for the regime. On top of revenue from selling oil at artificially high prices, they would collect tolls from their customers buying that oil.
“Free shipping,” it wasn’t. After paying through the nose for the oil, the customers paid again through the nose to pick it up.
It’s as if Amazon told you there was no free shipping on what you bought. In fact, there was no shipping at all. You had to pick up the merchandise from half way around the world – and you had to pay a hefty pick-up charge.
In response to all this, Trump did something I have to confess was brilliant, even though I hadn’t thought of it. He upped the Hormuz ante. He said in effect, “If you want to selectively close the Strait, fine. We’ll close it altogether.”
That eliminated most of Iran’s oil sales. Since oil is by far their biggest source of revenue, the move closed their ATM.
It gets worse for Iran. With nowhere to send its oil, Iran is forced to shut down its wells. Oil wells cannot be simply shut-down indefinitely. If the oil isn’t pumped, the well becomes inoperative and then dysfunctional within weeks.
Iran is thus facing a severe money crunch, which will become increasingly difficult to pull out of. They are denied their main source of revenue, and each day increasingly renders that denial permanent.
Now Iran is doing what losers do in negotiations. They’re trying to gracefully cave in. Two weeks ago, they scornfully refused negotiations unless America pre-conceded important points. It was if a seller on eBay told you, “If you pre-agree to pay full price, then I’ll discuss whether or not I’ll agree to sell this to you.”
That changed at the end of this week. Iran now says it will negotiate without those pre-concessions.
Here’s where I have to admit Trump is truly showing some art in the deal – or at least an instinct for the jugular. He told the Iranians, no thanks.
Trump seems to recognize an important negotiating point that it took me many years to learn in practicing law. It’s this: When you gain an advantage, and the other side realizes it, your advantage is probably bigger than you think.
Unless there’s a reason to let your opponent save face (sometimes there is), this is the time to annihilate them. Wait till they beg. Then let them grovel. Then go in for the kill.
I confess to a love-hate relationship with Trump. But this is yet another instance when I’m oh-so-glad Trump is President rather than any of the alternatives that were offered. I can’t quite imagine Sleepy Joe or Kam-A-La going in for the kill.
the Aspen beat 
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Effectively; Trump is holding Iran Hostage. . .
OK. But I have a philosophical. Why is it that the US strategy is always to bomb the shit out of a country to get our way and in the long run it doesn’t seem to go our way anyway. (Particularly when we are already trillions in debt with no path back to normalcy.) I am thinking of Vietnam, (how’d that work out?) but there are plenty of other examples. Is it that the military needs to test their weaponry for upgrade every 20 years? Is it so that Northrop Grumman and Raytheon can keep their billion-dollar balance-sheets up for shareholders? Is it that every new Defense Sect’y need to prove how macho he can be? (Tattoos are not enough.) If blocking the strait was the stranglehold that it seems to be, why not do that? I know that Iran doesn’t care how many civilians get killed, but maybe a country that boast human rights and freedom…should give it at least a little thought. Lastly, if Trump is such a great negotiator, and I agree that he is, why not…at least START with a stranglehold and eventually tighten the noose? It worked for Kennedy.
Personally, I don’t like the idea of bombing the shit out of countries either. I’ve lived a life of either preparing for war or watching it done for the last 68 years and I didn’t support this one in the beginning either, I didn’t like Vietnam with my dad being gone, Grenada was flat out stupid, Panama could have been handled without an invasion (but I know a lot of good stories about that one,) Somalia? Somalia is in Africa where they still don’t understand the “wheel”, growing food or wiping their asses. Bosnia that should have been left to Europe and we had no place there in the least.
I think there is more to this one than just bombing the shit out of Iran. I wonder this time “What’s the play?”, there’s something more here. Ukraine, Venezuela, Cuba now Iran. It’s a realignment and a move to (I think) allow use to draw back into our hemisphere alone. This last election drastically changed our country’s path from an alignment in (I hate thinking it might have been real) a New World Order. Europe seems to have decided to keep on that path though they won’t survive it. Russia has broken away from Europe and is working to secure their borders from our lies about “not” expanding NATO. China is China, the cheatenist, greediest, liars on earth, that was seriously trying to become the sole manufacturer to the world. As far as your Northrop Grumman and Raytheon issue: I have watched so many of my friends and even family walk through their doors after the military and those companies are not hiring them for their expertise but rather “access” alone but, if you are going to kill that path for employment you need to expand it into all the Corp boards and NGOs all out politician’s spouses, family and friends sit on being paid for what? Access. I think this is a position of “stranglehold” and hop it allows us to pull back, defend what is ours and find some peace.
Grenada was not “stupid”. It was a test by the Soviets to see if Reagan would waffle or react. Had Reagan not immediately purged the Cubans, they would have continued to run rampant throughout the Caribbean and elsewhere. The Russians did not pull any similar stunts after that.
A little prevention…
Grenada was barely a war.
Like other US interventions in the last 50 years, the Iran war should be understood from a larger geopolitical context, in this case it looks like the start of a new cold war with China. Iran is one of China’s main energy suppliers (like Venezuela). With Iran not selling, the UAE, and probably others soon, have pulled out of OPEC so they can sell at capacity, and the US is starting to export as well, giving US more control of trade routes and the dynamics of the global economy. Also, the US is supplanting Lloyds of London as suppliers of shipping insurance, which is a big deal by itself. Domestic political considerations notwithstanding, time is on the side of the US in the current situation, and definitely not with Iran, so Trump is in no hurry to resolve the Persian Gulf mess anytime soon.