AI has already solved the energy crisis, but not in the way you think

The modern world runs on energy. Petroleum products heat homes and power cars, airplanes and ships. Electricity runs computers and appliances, produces light, and powers an increasing number of cars and a few trains.

Electricity is a “high” form of energy which can be used for almost anything. The least efficient use is to simply route it through a resistive wire to generate heat. It does that very well, but it’s a waste of this high form of energy. As a source of heat, electricity is about as effective as rubbing two sticks together. A lot of energy is consumed to produce a little heat. (Heat pumps are a different story; they’re quite efficient.)

What electricity does more efficiently is to electrify the armature of an electric motor, such as the ones in your washing machine, drier, dishwasher, power tool, air conditioner, garbage disposal and electric car.

When an electric motor armature is electrified, it becomes magnetic – a simple electromagnet. That magnetism engages with the permanent magnets housed in the motor and – voila! – the armature spins. The energy of electricity has been converted into the energy of motion.

That motion gets mechanically translated via gears, chains and whatnot into motion to drive your garbage disposal or automobile or power drill or whatever else you want to produce motion in.

An even better use for electricity is to power computers. Computers are efficient devices. A large portion of the electricity going into them is used productively for their end purpose of computing. Not much is wasted in generating heat or used up in the friction of mechanical gears and chains.

Consider what you get out of your phone, which is powered by a battery weighing less than an old-fashioned D cell flashlight battery. (Remember those?) You’re connected to practically everything in the world, from anywhere in the world. Smart phones are the most amazing invention since the internet, which is the most amazing invention since we invented fire. (OK, we didn’t invent fire, but just invented ways to make it and use it.)

Here’s where artificial intelligence comes in. It’s the most amazing invention since smart phones, and might even surpass smart phones.

“Exponential” is an overused word (typically by people who think it means “big”) but it might be exactly the right word to describe the growth of AI. In the span of a year, we’ve gone from thinking AI might be something like the dot-com investment bubble, or maybe just an old-fashioned scam, to seeing it put hundreds of thousands of people out of work.

And it’s generally accepted that millions more will soon follow. Ironically, AI’s most recent victims include computer programmers. AI now writes computer programs. It even programs itself.

What that means for society is a topic for another column. (Hint: societal wealth will explode, but it won’t be shared equally.)

Today’s topic is how AI solved the electricity shortage.

Yes, there’s an electricity shortage. So-called “renewables” like wind-generated electricity and solar-generated electricity flopped. The cost of wind turbines and solar panels is just too high, they take up too much room, and they’re unreliable.

AI has solved the problem, but not in the way you might assume. Nobody asked AI “how do we solve the electricity crisis?” Even AI lacks the judgment and smarts to answer that question intelligibly.

What happened is this:

AI requires two important things, among others. One is massive, almost incomprehensible monetary investments. The money is used to develop AI, and is used to build humongous AI data processing centers. The monetary investment is AI is already on the magnitude of the inflation-adjusted money spent on the Apollo space program and the interstate highway system – except this time it’s nearly all private money rather than taxpayer money.

These billions of dollars – perhaps trillions now – come from very smart companies headed by very smart people. Think Microsoft, Facebook and Google along with new ones like Nvidia. These aren’t kids in the basement fooling around with “pets.com” and, at least at this stage, they don’t even want or need your money. They have plenty of their own.

The second thing AI requires is related to the first. For those humongous data centers, they need humongous amounts of electricity. Incredible amounts.

You may say that doesn’t solve the electricity shortage. Rather, it makes the shortage even worse.

But making a crisis worse is sometimes the way to solve it.

You see, Big Tech has decided to go nuclear.

Reasonable people have long known that the most effective way to generate energy is through nuclear power. Nuclear reactors produce no greenhouse gasses, uranium is relatively abundant, and the radioactive waste issue is manageable.

But society refused to go nuclear because . . . NUKES!

In fairness, accidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima righty gave us pause. But we’ve come a long way, baby, when it comes to safety. Modern nuclear plants are essentially foolproof.

They can also be built on a micro scale. The army recently transported one on an airplane.

The Administration is solidly behind nuclear. Even the Luddite Democrats are largely behind it, even though Trump is too. The reason for this rare agreement is undoubtedly that Big Tech and its Big Money have told both to get behind it.

When Big Tech and Big Money and Big Government all get behind something, Big Things will happen. Nuclear energy is finally coming, in a very big way. The result will be abundant, inexpensive electricity.

That’s a bigger deal than it sounds. It doesn’t just mean that your electric utility bill will be manageable.

Energy is what makes the world go around. The new world will have plenty of it. A good portion of it will be used by AI computers to make society as a whole rich (but unevenly so).

There’s no Hot Water!

“It’s an exciting opportunity,” gushed a city of Aspen spokeswoman with no scientific or business expertise. The “opportunity” about which she was excited was the city’s idea to get into the geothermal-energy business.

That was five years ago. Now there’s, well, less excitement. In place of the excitement, we have a $300,000 hole in the ground.

How exactly did our money get out of our pockets and down that hole?

It all started when the city heard rumors that miners in the old days emerged from the mines all hot and sweaty. (You don’t say! A hot and sweaty miner?)

So the city government wished, and therefore believed, that there was free geothermal energy to be had. See how exciting this is?

The city’s first step was to partner with experts in the utilities industry who had lots of specific experience in the production of geothermal energy.

Ha! Now I’m kidding, of course. It did no such thing because this is the gang that thinks it knows everything from running restaurants to producing hydroelectric energy to renting bicycles to real estate investing. Besides, what’s to know? It’s not rocket science; it’s just geothermal-energy generation.

No, instead, the city contracted with an outfit called Dan’s Water Well. Dan’s business is pumping money into the ground and pumping water out of it.

But wait — another exciting thing happened first. The city would get $50,000 in “free money” to pursue its “free energy” in the form of a state grant funded by other taxpayers. Even better, there was talk about getting another $3.5 million in additional “free money” in the form of a federal grant funded by faraway taxpayers. (The federal “free money” never materialized.)

Dan started drilling next to the Roaring Fork River by Herron Park in fall 2011. It was supposed to take him 30 to 45 days and $200,000 but wound up taking nearly two years and $300,000.

The first hole never hit water. It didn’t just fail to find water that was hot; it failed to find any water at all. That was quite an accomplishment, considering that the hole was only 100 feet from the river. Maybe Dan should have drilled horizontally.

The second hole finally did find water. It wasn’t at the 1,000 feet that was supposed to be the maximum for the hole but at 1,500 feet.

The tide went out on whatever excitement remained when the water was only 70 degrees. Even Dan likes his bathwater warmer than that.

The good news, they report, is that the pressure of the water is sufficient that it bubbles right up without the need for much pumping. So the water can be obtained for a cost that is equal to its value: zero. (That’s if you don’t include the $300,000 cost of drilling the well.)

Now the only excitement left and the only energy that is being produced are in the city’s frantic effort to spin this boondoggle as something other than dead in the water.

The spin cycle revolves around conjecture and hope that the water was perhaps warmer — maybe 90 degrees — at the bottom of the hole and that it cooled as it rose to the surface. The city infers from this that its hole isn’t exactly a gold mine but that it could be a silver mine. Or maybe copper. OK, at least tin.

This requires us to ignore three facts. First, the city doesn’t actually know the temperature of the water at 1,500 feet because it hasn’t put a thermometer down there to measure it. It’s possible that it is 90 degrees and it cooled off as it rose through the hole, as the city hopes and conjectures. But it’s also possible that it is 70 degrees — that it was 70 degrees at the bottom of the hole and it stayed 70 degrees when it came up the hole.

Second, even if the water is indeed 90 degrees at the bottom of the hole, that doesn’t represent a geothermal resource. Geologists know that the temperature of Earth’s upper crust typically goes up about 4 to 5 degrees for every 100 meters of depth. So at the bottom of a 1,500-foot (about 460-meter) hole, the temperature should be about 18 to 23 degrees warmer. In short, Dan found, at best, what he would find anywhere that is not geothermally active.

Third, the city itself said back in 2008 that it hoped to find water with a temperature of 140 degrees. (It takes about 200-degree water for the production of electricity, but the city’s hope was that 140-degree water might be useful to heat buildings — provided that a whole new insulated water-circulation system were designed and built to bring it from the hole to the buildings before if cooled off.) The city now says that the conjectured 90-degree water is “on the low end” of what might be useful. I suppose that in a sense 90 is indeed on the low end of 140. The very low end.

The bottom line is, first, that this latest episode of City Hall bureaucrats playing amateur scientists/businessmen has failed and, second, that the city is not candid about the failure. After going 50 percent over the budgeted money, going a total of 150 percent over the budgeted hole depth, going 2,000 percent over the budgeted time, disturbing neighbors to no end and creating a two-year eyesore, all we have is a financial black hole.

Maybe they can plug the hole with their never-used $1.5 million hydroelectric generator.

Published in The Aspen Times on July 13, 2013 at http://www.aspentimes.com/opinion/7528910-113/hole-degrees-energy-dan