
A few weeks ago, Iran had lost every battle but was winning the war. The regime had survived, even though its putative leader and probably his son and many others had not.
That’s because the Iranian regime was still raking in billions in the oil market, Moreover, they were disrupting the oil market for the rest of the world.
That disruption benefited the regime doubly. It garnered a higher price for their oil, and it incentivized the world to push for America to back off. Dependably venal and dependably short-term in its outlook and dependably anti-American, the world did as instructed.
Sure, a few thousand of Iran’s people had been killed by bombs, but the regime couldn’t care less about a few thousand of its people. After all, this is an outfit that killed ten times that many people in the streets last fall when they dared to protest the regime.
But as radicals often do – this is one reason they’re called “radicals” – the regime overplayed its hand.
They shut down the Strait of Hormuz to everyone except Iranian-approved vessels. As for the ones they approved, they conditioned their approval on payment of a multimillion-dollar toll. This is for an international waterway, mind you.
Their little pirate scheme was calculated to raise even more money for the regime. On top of revenue from selling oil at artificially high prices, they would collect tolls from their customers buying that oil.
“Free shipping,” it wasn’t. After paying through the nose for the oil, the customers paid again through the nose to pick it up.
It’s as if Amazon told you there was no free shipping on what you bought. In fact, there was no shipping at all. You had to pick up the merchandise from half way around the world – and you had to pay a hefty pick-up charge.
In response to all this, Trump did something I have to confess was brilliant, even though I hadn’t thought of it. He upped the Hormuz ante. He said in effect, “If you want to selectively close the Strait, fine. We’ll close it altogether.”
That eliminated most of Iran’s oil sales. Since oil is by far their biggest source of revenue, the move closed their ATM.
It gets worse for Iran. With nowhere to send its oil, Iran is forced to shut down its wells. Oil wells cannot be simply shut-down indefinitely. If the oil isn’t pumped, the well becomes inoperative and then dysfunctional within weeks.
Iran is thus facing a severe money crunch, which will become increasingly difficult to pull out of. They are denied their main source of revenue, and each day increasingly renders that denial permanent.
Now Iran is doing what losers do in negotiations. They’re trying to gracefully cave in. Two weeks ago, they scornfully refused negotiations unless America pre-conceded important points. It was if a seller on eBay told you, “If you pre-agree to pay full price, then I’ll discuss whether or not I’ll agree to sell this to you.”
That changed at the end of this week. Iran now says it will negotiate without those pre-concessions.
Here’s where I have to admit Trump is truly showing some art in the deal – or at least an instinct for the jugular. He told the Iranians, no thanks.
Trump seems to recognize an important negotiating point that it took me many years to learn in practicing law. It’s this: When you gain an advantage, and the other side realizes it, your advantage is probably bigger than you think.
Unless there’s a reason to let your opponent save face (sometimes there is), this is the time to annihilate them. Wait till they beg. Then let them grovel. Then go in for the kill.
I confess to a love-hate relationship with Trump. But this is yet another instance when I’m oh-so-glad Trump is President rather than any of the alternatives that were offered. I can’t quite imagine Sleepy Joe or Kam-A-La going in for the kill.