The polls are wrong again, and this time we have advance evidence beyond Trump’s say-so.
Polling has always been an inexact science, and now it’s harder than ever. It’s hard to get a representative sampling of actual voters by making random telephone calls to people whose willingness to participate and trust of media pollsters are skewed politically.
Look at an example separate from the presidential race. In Maine, four-term Senator Susan Collins is up for re-election for her fifth term. In her last two elections, she won by 23 and 37-point margins. Yet polls show her behind this time by about 5 points.
Those polls cannot be right. She’ll win by at least 4 points, suggesting a huge error in the polls – an error of at least 9 points.
Other factors are uniquely Trumpian. First, Trump’s approval ratings are higher than his polling numbers. If both are accurate, then many people who approve of his job performance nonetheless want to fire him.