Glenn K. Beaton is a writer and columnist living in Colorado. He has been a contributor to The Wall Street Journal, RealClearPolitics, Powerline, Instapundit, American Thinker and numerous other print, radio and television outlets.
Extrapolating from Glenn Youngkin’s win in the Virginia governor’s race, I predicted a year ago that the GOP would flip about 46 seats in the House in the midterm elections, and two or three in the Senate.
So here we are a year later, on the verge of those midterms. How’s my prediction holding up?
Quite well, thank you. The Real Clear Politics aggregation of pundit predictions says the GOP will pick up between 12 and 47 seats. The first – the 12 seat prediction – is clearly from a transexual-grooming Democrat pot legalization pundit with purple hair who just got canceled a tenth of the $100,000 student loan that THEY took out for THEIR gender studies degree, while the last – the 47 seat prediction – is obviously from someone who thinks clearly but about 2% too optimistically. Probably a Republican.
Last August, Joe Biden abandoned Afghanistan to 13th century barbarians. The result was and is an ongoing bloodbath. Getting out of Afghanistan may or may not have been a good move, but the way Biden did it was destructive and disgraceful.
Biden’s generals told the press that they recommended to Biden a more orderly approach. Biden denied that. He essentially said his generals are liars.
Paradoxically, Biden simultaneously contended that his cut-and-run was “an extraordinary success.” If he believes that, then why doesn’t he say, “Yeah, the generals recommended a more measured withdrawal, but I was smart enough to override them in order to obtain this extraordinary success.”
Lawyers call this “pleading in the alternative.” There’s an old lawyers’ joke where the accused murderer says, “I didn’t kill him and if I did it was in self-defense.” In Biden’s case, he says, “It was an extraordinary success for which I’m responsible but if it wasn’t then it’s the generals who are responsible and they’re lying if they say they aren’t.”
Kamala Harris told us before this week’s election that, “What happens in Virginia will in large part determine what happens in 2022, 2024 and on.”
OK, let’s run with that. Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020. This week, his surrogate in the governor’s race for whom he, Harris and other Dem poobahs personally campaigned lost by two. That’s a 12-point swing.
I applied that 12-point swing to the 2020 midterm elections for the House of Representatives to get a feel for the 2022 elections. In other words, to graft this week’s result onto the 2022 midterms, I subtracted six points from the vote share of each Democrat in 2020 and added those six points to each Republican. The result was a 46-seat swing to the GOP.
It will be a catastrophe of Biblical proportions. Think fire and brimstone. The Four Horsemen of Joe, Kamala, Nancy and Chuck riding off a cliff. Cats like AOC sleeping with dogs like Bill Clinton (OK, that’s not odd, but it’s sure icky). Locusts. Hillary’s persistent pestilent pantsuits.
The first midterm elections during a presidential term are a test that he/she/they/it usually fails. Democrats do particularly badly, since most Democrat voters are not aware of midterm elections of their House and Senate representatives. Heck, they don’t even know who their representatives are. The Democrats lost 64 House seats in the 2010 midterm when Barack Obama was president and 54 seats in the 1994 midterm when Bill Clinton was president.
That’s bad. Even the outmanned and outplayed Broncos in Superbowl XXIV lost by only 45.
This time, the Dems don’t even have politically competent Obama or Clinton. They instead are headed by a stupid, senile, hair-plugged, incompetent, tongue-tied, foolish President Lite whom Obama warned we should “never underestimate” in his ability to “f*ck things up.”